There's no shortage of 3D-ready TV players coming to market, but don't expect a 3D-enabled Blu-ray player until about 2011, at least—and that creates an interesting opening for movie theaters and cable carriers, especially once James Cameron's 3D "Avatar" blows our minds this winter.
While TV manufacturers like Samsung and JVC already make 3D-ready plasma and LCD HDTVs, they won't give you the full 3D effect without 3D content. For now, that mainly means 3D-enabled video games on a PC.
And while you can try watching standard 2D video with the 3D goggles on (and yes, I've tried it), you'll only get a weird, pseudo-3D effect—not to mention a headache—for your trouble.
In short, you need a 3D Blu-ray player to go with that 3D HDTV to watch stereoscopic movies at home—and according to Variety, that ain't gonna happen anytime soon.
What's the holdup? You guessed it: standards. Variety notes that although Panasonic showed off a 3D-enabled Blu-ray player at CES in January, we shouldn't hold our breath for the likes of Sony or JVC—neither of which have any 3D Blu-ray players in the pipeline—to support Panasonic's design.
OK, but who cares? I don't know about you, but I'm not dying to watch "Monsters Vs. Aliens" at all really, much less in 3D. For now, the 3D thing seems more like a gimmick than anything else.
But here's the thing—I'm guessing that's all going to change come December 18, 2009, when the James Cameron-directed "Avatar" finally hits theaters.
In development for more than a decade, "Avatar" is Cameron's first movie since 1997's "Titanic," and from all reports will be the most immersive 3D movie yet.
A Time magazine writer saw some finished footage from "Avatar" and was rocked on his heels: "I couldn't tell what was real and what was animated—even knowing that the 9-ft.-tall blue, dappled dude couldn't possibly be real. The scenes were so startling and absorbing that the following morning, I had the peculiar sensation of wanting to return there, as if Pandora were real."
Something tells me "Avatar" will be a game-changer for 3D in the same way that "Jurassic Park" was for CGI—and that viewers seeing it in 2D will feel like they're truly missing out.
Long story short: Once "Avatar" becomes a big hit (that's my prediction, anyway), we'll all suddenly start caring about 3D—and without 3D DVD or Blu-ray players, movie theaters and even cable might start looking a lot more attractive.
A movie like "Avatar" might truly be something that you'll want to see in a 3D-equipped theater again and again (for $16 a pop, no doubt) for the full-on immersive experience. And at home ... well, I see a real opportunity for 3D cable 1080p pay-per-view. I can see the ads now: "Watch 'Avatar' in 3D now … only on Comcast 3D-HD 1080p On-Demand!"
OK, but what about a streaming 3D version of "Avatar" over the Net? Well, maybe, although I'm guessing that digital compression would mar the experience. (Compression could be a problem over cable too, of course—although if the carriers are smart, they'll devote enough bandwidth to their 3D HD 1080p PPV channels to make it worth our while.)
So, what do you think: Do you care that we're a long way from a 3D Blu-ray player? Will movies theaters and cable be the big winners? Think "Avatar" will turn 3D into a must-have feature, or will it remain a gimmick?